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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."